Measuring the Race Against Time: A Call for Common Metrics in the Climate Debate

Our climate is undergoing catastrophic shifts leading to the point where human civilization will not be sustainable. As this disastrous process continues, scientists warn about the impending disasters of climate change and countries bicker about who needs to do how much to prevent it. Through this chaos, one fact resonates: we will win or lose this race together. Negotiations and summits across the world face a variety of barriers, many of which stem from one problem- countries use different standards and measures when they talk about action to reduce climate change.

How we talk about climate change commitments matters. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) -- which represents the consensus of the international scientific climate change community -- issued the gold standard of climate reduction goals. They call for a of 25% -40% greenhouse gas reduction of 1990 levels by 2020, if we are to avoid catastrophic effects. This translates to a reduction requirement of 13-16 billion metric tons by 2020. This is the figure that we must keep our eye on.

Greenhouse gas reduction goals are the underlying currency of efforts to halt climate change. These goals are typically expressed in the arcane formula of “percent reduction from base year by a given end year.” For example, Canada’s goal is to decrease its greenhouse gas output by 20% below 2006 levels by 2020. Germany’s current goal is 8% below 1990 levels by 2012. The “Waxman-Markey” legislation passed in the U.S. House of Representatives calls for 5%-17% below 2005 output by 2020. It’s like an Olympic race where each runner chooses their own start and finish lines.

Unfortunately it’s extremely difficult to assess whether national commitments, when combined, achieve the IPCC goal and whether individual nations are doing their share. When countries use different base years against which to measure reductions, or make commitments in terms of carbon intensity like China has done, it is hard to hold them against the standard of how much pollution they should be allowed to emit.

National governments must make climate change commitments and they should express them in terms simple enough to allow reasonable citizens to assess how their respective nation is doing. This can be achieved by using metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions. Nations should be held to the same standard that they require of businesses. Cap-and-trade markets place a greenhouse gas emissions limit on businesses —based on metric tons released annually—or they pay a price. Climate change legislation considered by the U.S. Congress requires businesses to measure the green house gas output in metric tons. Governments should be required to do the same.

Climate change negotiators should work towards two simple goals:

1) Get all nations to change their metrics to a standard unit of measure and to agree to limit total annual global greenhouse gas output to the IPCC goal of 13-16 billion metric tons by 2020. This would not require any nation to make a binding commitment of its output. But it would obligate all nations to work towards this global goal.

2) Keep all nations at the table until their combined commitments, express in metric tons released yearly, are in the 13-16 billion ton range. Nations should agree to continue negotiations until the IPCC goal is met. Civil society should engage in a “keep them at the table” campaign.

Citizens from around the world need to work together to keep the bargaining going until there is a deal that will allow all of us to win the climate change race together.

Read more about the 2009 Copenhagen Climate Summit and the need to establish common metrics